Empereur

“New Europe – Old Europe”

The future of US relations with Eastern Europe

The Second Gulf War made Russia confrontational vis-à-vis of the United States. This is an extraordinary event that marked the come back of the Russia, a young democracy, into international political arena. Along with France and Germany, the America’s two strongest allies in the European Continent, the ‘Old Europe’ coalition made the NATO existence meaningless. And so is American strategic deployment in Western Europe. For lot strategists, it is time for moving toward the East.

In to order to understand such strategic thinking, few facts need to be taken into account. First of all, the end of the Cold War, in addition to disappearance of a common military enemy has made NATO’s many granted functions irrelevant. Secondly, the dispute between NATO allies and among the European leaders proven once again that a divergence of opinion exists deeply between Americans and Europeans. Finally, it is predictable that soon we will see certain leaderships among the West and East European that supported the ‘Coalition of Willings’ to fall. Therefore, because of the obstruction from the highest French and German leadership, and resentment against the United States among a majority of Western European, Washington, in order to keep its strategy interests in the European continent, shall consider a possibility of moving its major European partnership toward the East. However, because we are only at the early stage of this historical strategic mutation, it will be too early to predict a strong American tactical alliance with the ‘New Europe’ states and how it should be proceeded. Another reason being, as new democracies, the leadership in Eastern and Central Europe are elected by people, and according to polls, few support, among newly freed European populous, Bush’s hawkish foreign policy.

However, needless to ask, will American administration be better off by giving up its historical alliance with the ‘Old Europe’, and engaging alliance building with the “New Europe?’ The answer is, certainly not. Consistent to DoD’s chief Don. Rumsfeld’s thinking, to maintain his dreamed Pax Americana, the ‘New Europe’ is the key to future American interests in the European continent. However, a continuation of such trend of strategic thinking would be devastating for America, and progressively, the US leadership will be forced to recognize such reality. American muscular military will not be intimidate its differences with EU members, nor through Economic sanction. We know none of the above could happen. Yet America needs badly EU members support for its international political agenda, for instance, the reconstruction of Iraq. On the other hand, The ‘New Europe’ is made by obviously young democracies weak in economy as well as diplomatic power. They are looking primarily for American wherewithal, yet much closer, in terms of market and culture to the EU. Thus, ‘New Europe’ is not a reliable partner in a long term, especially when EU market is totally open to Eastern European products, and Eastern populous could go to Paris, Milan and London freely.

Meanwhile, though the possibility for an alliance appears doubtful, Eastern Europe can still play a significant role in this American dominated international diplomacy game. Washington must remember, nevertheless, in this strategic game, Russia is the key. On one hand, Germany and France had a historical alliance with Russia. On the other, ‘New Europe’ states were historical prisoners of imperial Russian semi feudal control, in addition to half a century Communist system. At the meantime, today’s Russian diplomatic power and its international existence are at the mercy of Washington. For instance, during the Clinton period, intentionally, Russia was ousted from international political scene. And today, Russia still needs badly American economic assistance for its unsuccessful market reform. Therefore, in terms of balance of power, alliance, and strategic partnership, Washington must consider Russia, and its relationship with respective interested European states, for Russian’s foreign diplomacy could be the very key to the future American trans-Atlantic relations, and a potential US – Eastern European partnership.

Finally, it is a fact that Germany and France announced they will vote against the United States at the United States Security Counsel. It is also a fact that Rumsfeld denounced the sabotage of ‘Old Europe’ publicly. This dispute, though temporary, has marked a permanent feeling of distrust among allies. During the Trans-Atlantic diplomacy confrontation, the Eastern European leadership, though against the will of their populous, supported the United States. One reason being, they want to make their identities known, for they have lived for too long under the shadow of France, Russia and Germany. As a result, American diplomacy must find a way to illuminate to the Eastern European population about a common purpose with American, to convince them that American military and economic preeminence is a reality; this fact is recognized and known by the entire world. American voice in international political arena will remain the most powerful, and the United States government will protect them militarily and help them economically, thus enable them to recognize it is in their strongest interests to be friend with the US.

Note from the author:

This is a draft paper; its quality is ‘ok.’ If you liked it, please leave me a note by email, if not, may be it is about time to make your own.

PS. And don't tell me your need my help for your high school paper because you are only 12.