The Strategy to Conquer a Country: the Rwandan Case

April 6^th 1994 at 8:23 pm, at the moment when the air plane of Rwandan President, Juvénal Habyarimana begun to land from the eastside of Kigali airport’s runway, the flight was attained by one sol-air missiles (SAM) and crashed in the very garden of the Presidential Palace. Along with Habyarimana, the victims included the President of Burundi, several ministers and military commandants of Rwanda’s army, and the French crew members, whom according to the former French Ambassador to Rwanda, reported directly in a regular base to the embassy about the movement of the President. Right after the crash, the Rwandan military FAR (Rwandan Force Army) radio communication station at Gisenyi, and a Togolais captain Mr. Apedo of MINUAR ( Mission of the United Nations for Rwanda) all observed a same radio message: “the  target is hit ” from the RPF (Rwandan Patriotic Front), a Tutsi majority rebellion force based in Uganda.

Subsequently, an internal war and genocide spread out in this small central African state -Rwanda, it resulted in close to one million deaths. After years of investigation and research done by interested students of African politics, it is believed that, in the contrary to the general believe, the current President of Rwanda, General Kagame, leader of RPF which conquered the country after the crash was responsible for the airplane crash. This paper examines the amazing strategy that he used to achieve the take over of the country in a very short period of time, and why he did the assassination of Habyarimana while knowing the Tutsi population inside of Rwanda will pay the price. 

In 1994, the future for RPF, as a political dissident group was compromising and opaque. From a political aspect, shortly after the air plain explosion, a general election was supposedly going to take place in Rwanda under the agreement of the Arusha Accords. This was a one way ticket for the exiled RPF. Under the terms of Arusha Accords, a transitional government was going to be installed in Rwanda on April 8^th a day after the genocide started. In a country where 80 % of population is Hutu, the Tutsi lead rebellion force will have no chance to win any national and regional elections. De facto, the FPR’s political campaign experience in the free election which toke place in the demilitarized region of Tampan in July/September 1993 proven to be disastrous. During this election, all parties including the FPR were allowed to participate; nevertheless, President Habyarimana’s party conquered all seats. Therefore, even though FPR would become a legitimate political force in Rwanda in accordance with the Arusha Accords, the movement had no chance to gain any governmental power as long as Habyarimana is controlling the country.

From a military perspective, Arusha Accords previewed that the national army will be composed of 19, 000 men, 60% from the FAR and 40% from the FPR. And officer positions will be shared 50/50. The post of chief of staff will attribute to FAR, and chief of staff of gendarmerie to FPR. The matter of fact was that the FPR, a majority Tutsi rebel lead force was much smaller in size than the regular army force and had no roots in Rwanda, so once incorporated, the rebellion movement will lose its essential source for protection. Consequently, under the terms of Arusha Accords, the rebel FPR force will lose both its political influence and military power, since it could not win any elections and will lose its military branch. On the other hand however, this represented a great opportunity for the Hutu extremists in Rwanda to eliminate the FPR in a legitimate political way through election, or simply use pure physical force by killing the majority of FPR members once they are inside of Rwanda. In addition, anti – FPR feeling was rising in Uganda where FPR was based, should the FPR refuses to follow the Arusha Accords, the latter will no longer be supported by the international community including the UN and loses its legitimacy and credibility face to the Rwandan people. Thus, at this crucial moment when the final realization of Arusha Accords is coming soon, the General Kagame must adapt quickly a new surviving strategy vis-à-vis of the antagonistic circumstance and the unknown future.

Yet neither the possibility of to cohabit with Hutu extremists, nor the time was favorable to the FPR; without taking actions the FPR will be put to death in impunity. Kagame knew that its military force was not able to fight a long war against the governmental force in terms of manpower and equipment; in addition, the Rwandan President is back financially and militarily by the French President François Mitterrand and Zairian President Mobutu. According to previous experience, both countries militarily intervened in 1990 and 1993 to back Habyarimana against FPR’s invasion. General Kagame, his sergeants and other leaders of FPR, Hutus and Tutsis alike were aware of the political reality, it was shifting into Rwandan government’s favor, and they will be soon sacrificed by the international community in order to maintain the status-quo in Rwanda and the Central Africa. If the ultimate objective for the FPR was to take over the country through military force, the removal of President Habyarimana was the key to achieve such audacious enterprise with less destructive consequences for the country and FPR, for the President Habyarimana was not just the authoritarian corrupted head of the state, but also the number one of Hutu extremist movement, the Akazu clan (the Small House) and a protégé of Mitterrand, two importance sources that backed his power.

Therefore, FPR’s leadership under the commandment of General Kagame decided to size a unique occasion – President Habyarimana’s traveling between Tanzania and Rwanda, to eliminate all leading Hutu extremists on board; one could assume that such terrible event will create an internal crisis in Rwanda, and the FPR could then launch a lightning attack to take over the country right after. In my assumption, Kagame knew that he must make an offensive move, yet although the FPR was a disciplined and will equipped army, a direct confutation with the governmental troops was not in FPR’s advantage. In General Kagame’s strategy, the removal of Habyarimana will undoubtedly create an internal division between the already divided Hutu extremist forces, and if Habyarimana disappears, France has no more reason, at least temporarily to back a headless regime. As the Hutu extremists would experience a period of chaos, and the national army will lose its leadership temporarily, to launch lightning attacks from the FPR controlled bases in Rwanda including Kigali could be extremely fruitful, Kagame would quickly capture the capital, destroy FAR main troops, avoids lethal confrontation with other smaller discouraged government troops, and minimize civilian casualty especially for the Tutsis.

General Kagame and few other FPR leaders were resolute to shift the situation into their advantage. The leadership informed subsequently the President of Uganda and Tanzania about their plan, and send two massagers named Dusaidi and Muligande to Washington with a mission to convince the American government not to intervene. A meeting between regional presidents was subsequently arranged by the Tanzanian President, during which Mobutu the President of Zaire decided to withdrew at the last minute. Kagame alerted all his troops in April 3^rd, order them must be ready, and sent his trusted assassination team, composed by ten FPR officers to be installed in three different locations. On the evening of the April 6^th 1994, two missiles were fired from two distinct locations toward the landing Falcon of President Habyarimana, one stroked the target. Hereafter, the Hutu extremists and Rwandan Army were so preoccupied with the killing of defenseless Tutsis civilians that the FPR troops did not encounter serious resistance for several days. The FPR subsequently achieved its victory, though longer than expected. General Kagame comprehended clearly about his and his adversaries’ capacity and weakness; this was why that his strategy was based on the removal of Habyarimana, the central figure who connected with different political establishments. In a hostile and compromising environment, Kagame in order to take over the country was able to foresight the uncertain future, turn the shifting environment into his favor; as Machiavelli wrote, “to achieve the final end,” Kagame and the leadership of the FPR, unable to confront the regular Rwandan troops, sacrificed the security of Tutsi people, assassinated Habyarimana, took advantage of chaos and finally controlled the country by force.